Newmarket Champions Day Trends and Tips

Will Trends unravel Champions day puzzle?

This Saturday sees the top class meeting from Newmarket where no less than five Group races are being staged as well as the second leg of the autumn double the extremely tricky Cesarewitch Handicap. Given that over 20+ runners are due to compete for the Totesport Heritage race we thought we would ask our trends author Gavin Priestley to help us fathom out the likely contenders…….

The Cesarewitch long distance handicap has seen a variety of winners over the years from hurdlers to staying flat handicappers to Pattern horses. A few things to note are that 3yo’s have tended to struggle in the race, penalty carriers are best avoided and, more bizarrely, the draw has played a major outcome in the result. Probably the title of best winner of recent years goes to Sergeant Cecil who won this in 2005 before embarking on a successful Cup race campaign over the following few seasons.

You can see the full breakdown of all of the significant trends here, but Gavin has used these to narrow down his suggestions to the following summary:-

Applying the Trends

There are no well handicapped 3yo’s lurking in this years field so I’m going to look for a typical Cesarewitch winner of late i.e. a horse that is trained by a jumping stable, is rated 83-98 and is drawn high. That leaves us looking at La Vecchia Scuola, Swinging Hawk, Universal Truth, Hawk Mountain and Kayf Aramis.

La Vecchia Scuola has had more runs this season than is normal and is therefore overlooked. Kayf Aramis doesn’t have a recent top 4 finish to his name. Swinging Hawk has never run in a Class 2 or higher race which leaves us with two.

The Likeliest Trends Winners

UNIVERSAL TRUTH currently a general 8/1 shot

&

HAWK MOUNTAIN current best price 25/1 with Boylesport

There are a number of bookmakers that are paying out on 5 places so please shop around come race day to get the best combination of value. It pays to be with the winning team here at Betting School.

RECENT TRENDS

Killer stat:

13 of the last 14 winners were drawn 11 or higher. 11 of the last 12 were drawn 17+

Age

• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or older

• 3yo’s are 1 winner from 27 runners in the last 11 years

Betting

• 12 of the last 13 winners returned 16/1 or lower

• Only 2 favourites have won in the last 16 years

Class

• All of the last 11 winners had run in a class 2 or better flat race

• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 83-98

• None of the last 11 winners carried a weight penalty

• 5 of the last 7 winners carried 8-11 or more

Distance

• All of the last 11 winners had won a race (flat and hurdles) over 2 miles or further

• 9 of the last 10 winners ran over 2miles+ last time out

Previous runs

• All of the last 11 winners had run a maximum of 7 times on the flat that season

• 13 of the last 14 winners had a top 4 finish in at least one of their last 2 flat runs

• 11 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 4 last time out

• 7 of the last 11 winners had run over hurdles

Interesting Fact

12 of the last 14 winners ran at Ascot, Chester or Newcastle (Northumberland

Plate) during that season. In fact 5 of the last 11 winners contested the Northumberland Plate.

Interesting Fact 2

Rather surprisingly for a long distance race the draw plays a major part in the

Cesarewitch. See Draw notes.

Interesting Fact 3

NH trainers have won 6 of the last 10 Cesarewitch’s

HOW THE LEADING FANCIES FIT THE TOP TRENDS

Run in Cl. 2 or better

Won at 2miles+

Max 7 flat season runs

Top 4 in 1 of last 2 flat runs

Rated 83-98

Drawn 11+

Bergo P P P P x x

Ajaan P P P P x x

Sentry Duty P P P P x P

Majestic Concord P P P P x x

Gala Evening P P P P P x

Swingkeel P P P P P P

Precision Break P P P P P P

Red Cadeaux P x P P P x

La Vecchia Scuol P P x P P P

Admiral Barry P P P P P x

Deauville Flyer P P P P P P

Plymouth Rock P x P P P P

Rangefinder P P x P P P

Dayia P P P P P P

My Arch P P P P P P

Swinging Hawk x x P P P P

Lang Shining P x x P P P

Cotillion P x P P P x

Dazinski P P P P P x

Oceans Minstrel P x x P P P

Aaim To Prosper P P P P P P

Cosmic Sun P x x P P P

Universal Truth P P P P P P

Hawk Mountain P P P P P P

Kayf Aramis P P P x P P

Dazzling Light P x x P x P

Arab League P P P P x x

Royal Trooper P x x P x P

Act of Kalanisi x P x P x P

Palomar P P P x x P

Simonside P P x P x P

Noddies Way P P P x x x

1999 – 2009 PAST WINNERS

Year Form Horse Flat Runs Age Weight Rated Odds Trainer

2009 141212 DARLEY SUN 10 3 8-06 94 9/2F D. SIMCOCK

2008 212-654 CARACCIOLA 18 11 9-06 98 50/1 N. HENDERSON

2007 171/401 LEG SPINNER 11 6 8-11 92 14/1 A. MARTIN

2006 115612/ DETROIT CITY 8 4 9-01 94 9/2F P. HOBBS

2005 231312 SERGEANT CECIL 34 6 9-08 104 10/1 B. MILLMAN

2004 12/56-64 CONTACT DANCER 13 5 8-02 83 16/1 M. JOHNSTON

2003 197/120 LANDING LIGHT 7 8 9-04 98 12/1 N. HENDERSON

2002 693233 MISS FARA 23 7 8-00 85 12/1 M.PIPE

2001 11-0055 DISTANT PROSPECT 15 4 8-08 88 14/1 I. BALDING

2000 5453-30 HEROS FATAL 12 6 8-01 84 11/1 M. PIPE

1999 2121-41 TOP CEES 37 9 8-10 95 7/1 I. BALDING

AGE OF THE WINNER (WINS / PLACES / NUMBER OF RUNNERS)

3yo (1-1-27) 4yo (2-8-111) 5yo (1-12-85) 6yo (3-8-63) 7yo (1-2-42) 8yo (1-1-23) 9yo+ (2-1-13)

OFFICIAL RATINGS BAN (WINS / PLACES / NUMBER OF RUNNERS)

76-85 (3-10-163) 86-90 (1-4-69) 91-95 (4-5-70) 96-100 (2-4-39) 101-105 (1-0-18) 106+ (0-0-5)

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARED

Favourites finishing position: 5-3-6-0-6-2-0-1-3-4-1 To £1 Level Stake: £0.00

Position of winner in market: 2-6-6-3-5-6-3-1-7-19-1

PACE IN THE RACE – HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED

LED 1 RACED PROMINENT 7

MID-DIVISION 14 HELP UP IN REAR 22

AVERAGE JOE – THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER

AGE

WEIGHT POSITION LAST TIME

RUNS THAT SEASON

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

NUMBER OF FLAT CAREER RUNS

ODDS 6 8 – 11 4 4 28 17 14 – 1

THE RANGE – SMALLEST & LARGEST FIGURE FOR LAST 11 RUNNINGS

AGE 3 – 11

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN 21 – 119

LAST RUN 1 – 13

CAREER RUNS 7 – 37

SEASONAL RUNS 0 – 9

ODDS 9/2 – 50/1

WEIGHT 8-00 – 9-08

OFFICIAL RATINGS 83 – 104

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

(RUNNERS WINNERS PLACED % WIN & PLACE) to No. of Runners / to No. of Places (44)

GB Bred 165 2 12 8.5% 31.8%

Irish Bred 151 5 14 12.6% 43.2%

French Bred 18 2 3 27.8% 11.4%

German Bred 10 1 3 40% 9.1%

USA Bred 29 1 1 6.9% 4.5%

CAN Bred 1 0 0 0% 0%

THE DRAW

YEAR 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH NO. OF RUNNERS GOING

2009 25 16 8 35 32 Good

2008 11 32 28 14 32 Good

2007 23 28 26 1 33 Good/Soft

2006 29 32 11 20 31 Good/Soft

2005 28 1 4 11 34 Good/Soft

2004 18 12 32 19 34 Soft

2003 36 18 12 19 36 Good/Firm

2002 36 35 29 1 36 Good

2001 32 19 31 30 31 Good/Soft

2000 18 6 20 21 33 Good/Soft

1999 17 19 21 15 32 Good

DRAW NOTES

WINNERS PLACES WINNERS PLACES

STALLS 1-5 0 4

STALLS 1-10 0 6

STALLS 6-10 0 2

STALLS 11-15 1 6

STALLS 11-20 4 14

STALLS 16-20 3 8

STALLS 21-25 2 2

STALLS 20-30 4 7

STALLS 26-30 2 5

STALLS 31+ 3 6

STALLS 31+ 3 6

Which really shows how those drawn under 11 are severely handicapped by the draw. Stalls 31+ have an incredible strike rate when you consider than in some years there were only 1 or 2 runners coming from those stalls.

A high draw (over 10) is a major requirement for the Cesarewitch.

Interestingly 3 of the 6 win and places for draw numbers 1-10 came from stall 1

TRAINER RECORDS

(RUNNERS – WINS – PLACED)

N.HENDERSON 5 2 1

A.MARTIN 6 1 2

M.JOHNSTON 17 1 0

P.HOBBS 4 1 1

C.EGERTON 2 0 1

D.PIPE 4 0 2

J.DUNLOP 10 0 1

J.PEARCE 2 0 2

J.QUEALLY 1 0 1

M.TREGONING 2 0 1

T.FITZGERALD 3 0 2

T.TATE 2 0 1

NAG RATINGS

KAYF ARAMIS 87

UNIVERSAL TRUTH 86

SWINGKEEL 86

SWINGING HAWK 85

LA VECCHIA SCUOLA 84

HAWK MOUNTAIN 84

RANGEFINDER 84

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