Newsletter: Hardwicke Stakes Dosage Index

What a cracking result from the Trends selections given in Monday’s newsletter for the St James’s Palace Stake which took place on the first day of the Royal Ascot meeting…..here is a reminder of  the information we sent out….

All of which reduces our shortlist to just two key contenders Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin.” & “the likeliest strong trends candidate Canford Cliffs to make best use of his finishing burst of speed.”

The result was

1st Canford Hills 11/4jf

2nd Dick Turpin 5/1

Straight Forecast paid over 14/1. We trust that you paid heed to the info and got on.

Hot on the heels of this result we thought you would be interested to hear from Ben Aitken who recently joined the Betting-School stable of authors. Ben has specialist knowledge of a horse racing method based on “Dosage”, and has had a book published on the technique. Ben has applied this to one of the races due to be run on the final day of the Royal Ascot meeting.

Hardwicke Stakes – June 19th 2010 – Royal Ascot

Dosage ratings are numerical figures which indicate the probable speed or stamina capabilities of a horse. These can be used to help me ‘Narrow the Field’ for most of the top Group/Graded races and handicaps run throughout the racing calendar. I first ascertain the Dosage ranges that the previous 15 winners of a race fell within then apply it to the runners entered in this season’s renewal.

This report merely skims the surface of how I utilise the Dosage Method but it is a great starting point for those of you that are looking for an alternative analysis tool to aid your betting approach.

Here are the Dosage trends for the Hardwicke Stakes, gathered from the past 15 renewals of this 1m4f race –

15/15 had 18 points or more in their Dosage Profile (DP)

11/15 had a Dosage Index (DI) of 1.36 and above

12/15 had a Centre of Distribution (CD) of 0.11 and above

14/15 fell into one of the 3 Dosage points angle (DPA) categories (PATB – 20+ – DQ)

Listed below are Saturday’s runners with their Dosage figures and running styles included (the field has been sorted by highest to lowest CD rating) –

Stall form Horse DP DPA TOT DI CD RS
5 11 ALAINMAAR 9-2-13-4-0 20+ 28 1.67 0.57 CP
7 14 BARSHIBA 8-1-10-4-1 DQ 24 1.40 0.46 CP
2 3 PETARA BAY 8-0-25-0-1 20+ 34 1.52 0.41 HU
10 3 WAJIR 4-3-11-4-0 20+ 22 1.32 0.32 HU
3 11 HARBINGER 2-2-8-2-0 / 14 1.33 0.29 CP
4 27 REDWOOD 7-0-16-4-1 20+ 28 1.15 0.29 HU
8 136 SOUTH EASTER 6-3-22-4-1 DQ 36 1.25 0.25 CP
1 2294 CROWDED HOUSE 14-1-21-10-4 DQ 50 1.04 0.22 HU
12 46331 CLAREMONT 8-1-24-9-2 DQ 44 0.91 0.09 CP
6 017 JUKEBOX JURY 2-1-9-4-0 / 16 0.88 0.06 CP
11 2 DUNCAN 2-2-12-4-2 DQ 22 0.83 -0.09 HU
9 66 SANS FRONTIERS 4-1-13-8-4 DQ 30 0.62 -0.23 HU

If we apply the aforementioned Dosage trends to Saturday’s field these are the runners we are left with –

ALAINMAAR, BARSHIBA & PETARA BAY with WAJIR and HARBINGER only marginally missing out on the DP side of things and HARBINGER having a question mark over DP point’s total.

In my own guides that are available through my Blog http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/ I also look at extended trends analysis in conjunction with the Dosage figures to help narrow the field. At quick glance at the extended trends analysis shows that BARSHIBA & PETARA BAY have a bit to find in this and are readily passed over on this occasion.

HARBINGER does look the likely winner of the race but with minor questions marks over his Dosage Points total, Dosage Index, the fact he does not fit one of the 3 Dosage Points Angles and the likelihood of him starting at skinny odds, I’m willing to pass him over in search of value.

ALAINMAAR is of reasonable interest but this is a big step up on what he has achieved so far and I’m not overly excited by the projected odds.

The horse that interests me most is WAJIR. His run last time out in the Doncaster Cup was better than the bare form suggests and he looked a danger before ‘blowing up’ inside the final 2 furlongs. He obviously needed that run and should strip much fitter this time out. The Danehill Dancer colt has Grade 2 & 3 winning form to his name from last season and with the Godolphin yard and Frankie Dettori being amongst the winners already this week the 4yo has a great chance of landing his first win on British soil.

Ben is currently writing a series of articles exclusively available to Betting School members so if you are still searching for that elusive method to enhance your punting profits then now is a great time to get involved with the innovative team here at Betting-School. Click Here to Join Now

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