The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 29th June)
Last time around we shared Nick Hardman’s hot trends for the big handicap on the last day of the Royal Ascot Festival and they proved to be very handy in helping him hone in on not only the winner but a big priced placer to boot.
For the coming weekend he has turned his attention to the Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle so hopefully these will help us follow up with another winner!
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Without further ado it’s over to Nick for those all-important Big Race trends…
The Northumberland Plate (Class 2, 2m ½f heritage handicap) – Newcastle 3.35pm
Since 2016 this has been run on the AW after Newcastle replaced their flat turf course with an artificial track. It is still a strong trends race, but caution is advised, and I would probably look for some course or previous AW form to go along with the other profile boxes that may be ticked.
The last 7 winners were all rated 96+ and we have seen a shift to winners higher up the handicap. Those 7 winners all carried 8-12 or more and had been off the track for 35 days or longer.
A top 5 finish LTO looks essential (19/22), ideally top 3 (16/22). The 4yo to 6yo runners have fared best (17/22) so I am sticking with that age group whilst 17/22 winners came from the top 8 in the betting and given around 16 line up that should help focus the field to those in the top half of the market.
13/22 had won at the distance of 2m or 2m ½f (the race is slightly longer on the AW) and they have a far superior strike rate to those without a win at those trips and 20/22 had run no more than 3 times in the current season.
16/22 had won over trips of 2m or further so this usually goes to a proven stayer and all bar 2 winners had had at least 9 career starts and 19/22 had tasted success in 2 to 5 handicaps previously.
19/22 last ran in a handicap and 16/22 last ran in Class 1 or 2 races and interestingly, Mark Johnston runners are 0-30 in this since 1997 and 14 of the last 22 runners arrived having run at Haydock, Chester, Newmarket (Rowley Mile) or Ascot.
All that gives us a fairly solid profile:
- Top 5 finish LTO (preferably top 3 LTO)
- Top 8 in the betting
- Aged 4yo or 6yo
- Rated 96+carrying 8st 12lbs or more
- Off the track for 35 days or longer
- Won over 2m or further
- No more than 3 runs in the current season
- At least 9 career starts
- 2 to 5 previous handicap wins
- Raced at class 1 or 2 LTO
- Last ran in a handicap
- Last ran at Chester, Haydock, Ascot or Newmarket (Rowley Mile)
Nick will be using the above to help whittle down the runners to a select few with the “winning profile” and to find out which of the runners he settles on as his final selection(s) read on:-
Sat 29th June
One from the weekly Insiders Report and the one who ticks most boxes is Dubawi Fifty. Fitness has to be taken on trust (off for a year) but good prospects if fully wound up for this. Lots fall down on just a few stats and these likelier types include Time To Study and Who Dares Wins. The former was 6th in this last year off a much higher mark and bounced back to form at Ascot last time. The latter is ultra consistent in these races and should be on the premises with a clear run.
Who Dares Wins @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Dubawi Fifty @11/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Time To Study @11/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
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Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve