The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 7th Sept)
There was no joy from last weekend’s trends race but given the average prices that our resident Big Race Guru targets you can’t win them all. For the latest Insiders Club members Report, Issue 200, Nick has researched the winners’ traits of the Old Borough Cup up at Haydock.
Just prior to Royal Ascot in June Nick undertook a review of his processes after what had been a very challenging start to the 2019 campaign. The results since that time have been impressive which was great news for many of his long standing members who to be fair may have been tempted to jump ship. In addition to the solid gains at the prevailing bookies prices most encouraging the post Royal Ascot period also made solid gains to the Betfair SP!
You can find out more about Nick’s specialist approach here https://bigracetips.co.uk/
Old Borough Cup (1m 6f Handicap, Class 2) – Haydock 3.35pm
We kick off the September trends with a look at the Old Borough Cup run over 1m 6f at Haydock. This has been an excellent betting race over the years with around 14 to 20 runners going to post.
The last 2 renewals have been blighted by heavy ground and only 9 and 8 runners took their respective chances. Fingers crossed for decent ground, a decent field and some decent prices on the day with plenty of bookmakers likely to offer additional place terms.
We have had a mixture of big priced and relatively short priced winners over the years. The biggies include winners at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and another 5 at double figure odds. The shortest priced winners have been 5/2 and 11/4 with a few others going in at 6/1 or shorter.
This could turn out to be a countdown race (one from the top, one from the middle etc.) to cover both eventualities but first we will see what the typical profile of previous winners looks like.
We can start by focusing on those trainers with the best recent records.
Runners from the yards of Mark Johnston (4 wins since 2003), John Gosden (2010 and 2014 winner) and last year’s winning trainer Ian Williams are the ones to consider closely.
Trainers aside, the first key statistic is the number of days since a horse last ran. 17 of the last 18 winners raced in the last 28 days and 15/18 raced in the last 22 days, including the last 7 winners. Basically, a run in the last 3 weeks is what we are looking for. We are also looking for a good recent run since 15 of the last 18 winners posted a top 4 effort last time out.
Horses aged 3yo used to dominate but with none running this time we need to focus elsewhere. 4yo’s are 7-105 for the 4yo’s (7% strike rate) and 3-62 for the 5yo’s (5% strike rate). That is tricky to interpret since only 1 of the last 13 winners was aged 5yo and 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 4yo.
Favourites have a good record, winning 7 of the last 18 renewals and 15 of the 18 winners could be found in the top 6 in the betting.
A fairly decent campaign is also in order with 15 of the 18 winners having already run between 4 and 7 times in the current season.
A win over at least 1m 4f is a must on the stats front and 17 of the winners since 1997 tick that box.
1 to 3 previous handicaps wins ticks the box too with 15 previous winners matching that criterion, and it lines up nicely with the age of the horses (3yo to 4yo). Interestingly, 17 of the 18 winners since 1997 last ran over 1m 4f to 1m 6f and those stepping down in distance from their last start have a record of 1-70.
That could be significant.
Other interesting stats include the higher strike rate of those with previous winning form at Class 1 and Class 2 level, and they also account for 11 of the 18 winners since 1997.
However, avoid those dropping down from Class 1 into this Class 2 event as those runners are yet to win this race.
All that leaves us with a fairly decent profile, and it looks like we will be focusing on 3yo to 4yo runners proven over 1m 4f to 1m 6f with at least 4 runs under their belts in the current campaign and proven at the race class.
- Trained by Mark Johnston, Ian Williams or John Gosden
- Raced in the last 22 days
- Top 4 finish LTO
- Aged 4
- Top 6 in the betting
- 4 to 7 runs in the current season
- Won over 1m 4f or further
- Last raced over 1m 4f to 1m 6f (avoid those dropping down in distance)
- 1 to 3 previous handicap wins
- Last ran at Class 2, 3 or 4 level
- Won at Class 1 or Class 2 level previously
You can find out which of the entries Nick settles on as his final selection(s) below:-
Sat 7th Sept
This race has been given the full trends treatment in the Weekly Report and the qualifiers on most boxes ticked are Corelli and Alright Sunshine. Time To Study is a horse we tipped the last twice, finishing nowhere and then winning in France on very soft when we missed him out. He is effectively races of 88 here, a full 20lb lower than at his peak last year and if he can back up that performance in France with another here then he is very attractively handicapped.
Alright Sunshine @7/1
Time To Study @10/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve