Hi All
The next Irish meeting is on Saturday (20th March) at Thurles with 7 races which feature the Grade 3 Pierce Molony Memorial Novice Chase (3.10pm).
Thurles
Is a Right-handed, undulating track with a climb to back straight and a descent to the final bend completing with an uphill finish. It’s a tight track with a 1m2f circuit.
As with Dundalk previously we will focus on the most recent 3 years and the following shows have the favourites have fared during that time:-
Overall decent stats for those at the head of the market especially with the clear favourites which have gone in 41% of the time over the past 3 years, although that would still have left you 11p in the pound out of pocket following them blindly.
One small glimmer though was that outright favourites in the Non-Handicap races fared the best with 51% winning and +5.71% ROI at SP.
Moving on who have been the top performers from the Trainer and Jockey ranks over the last 3 years?
Only 8 trainers have managed to win more than 2 races during the past 3 years:-
Top Trainers
Let’s drill down a little to see if there are any hidden gems in what largely looks pretty uninspiring in the above Table.
Willie Mullins
Top of the pile from a Strike Rate perspective but a good chunk of the Mullins runners go off as favourite which is no real surprise given the status of the yard.
Interestingly only 10.53% of the Non-Favourites actually won, and this has the makings of a laying method for those that have an interest in such activities.
Henry De Bromhead
The yard has averaged a 15% Strike Rate with all of their runners over the last 5 years over the sticks in Ireland, so 20% at Thurles is worth looking into further.
On a general point most would expect the chasers to be the best performers, they certainly are overall (18% SR) but at Thurles it seems the Hurdlers are the ones to potentially focus on:-
Breakdown of NH Race Type
Surprisingly only 3 of the 23 hurdlers ridden by stable jockey Rachael Blackmore actually prevailed. If we focus on the runners without her on-board we end up with 11 winners from 32 and a +81.3% ROI to Betfair SP.
Micro Method
Back the Henry De Bromhead trained runners at Thurles when competing in Hurdles races and not being ridden by Rachael Blackmore.
Regards
Steve Carter