The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 13th April)
Last weekend Tiger Roll became the first horse since Red Rum 45 years earlier to claim back-to-back victories in the Aintree National, and for the coming weekend Ayr play host to the Scottish version which was the subject of Nick Hardman’s attention for the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 179.
The latest edition also featured key trainer stats for next week’s Craven meeting at Newmarket and Alex Peperell’s top tips for the 2019 All-Weather Championship finals at Lingfield on Good Friday.
You can find out more about the weekly Members Reports which form an integral part of the comprehensive package available from the Betting Insiders Club here – https://bettinginsiders.com.
Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (4 miles) Ayr 3.35pm
The Nationals come thick and fast in April and next up is the Scottish equivalent. Paul Nicholls has won this 3 times since 1997 and no other trainer currently holding a licence has won it more than once in that time. Phillip Hobbs, Alan King and Nigel Twiston Davies have had multiple placed horses, with the latter two also winning it, so look out for their runners.
20 of the last 22 winners had been off the track for at least 14 days and 17 of the last 19 winners carried 11-03 or less.
19 of the last 22 winners were aged between 8yo and 11yo and 20 of the last 22 winners posted a top 6 effort on their last run, but a top 3 finish is preferable as 14 of those 20 winners finished in the first three on their last start.
The last 8 winners all came from the official ratings band of 135 to 146 which might just help narrow the field by a few.
There have been plenty of big priced winners of this race over the years, but we can narrow the big field down by concentrating on those in the top half of the market with 19 of the last 22 winners being found in the top 15 in the market.
Given that 24 to 30 go to post, we can whittle it down somewhat on that statistic.
Between 3 and 6 runs in the current season looks ideal (19/22) as is a previous win over at least 3 miles (19/22).
All bar 2 winners since 1997 had run over fences at least 5 times and 18/22 last ran in a class 2 or 3 race. 16/22 had won a race that season.
That gives us the following profile:
- Off the track for 14 days or longer
- Carrying 11-03 or less
- Aged 8yo to 11yo
- Top 6 finish last time out (ideally top 3)
- Rated 135 to 146
- Top 15 in the betting
- Between 3 and 6 runs in the current season
- Won over 3 miles or further
- At least 5 races over fences
- Won a race in the current season
- Ran at class 2 or 3 level last time out
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Phillip Hobbs and NTD
Sat 13th April
The trends point to three in the shape of Takingrisks, Carole’s Destrier and Brian Borhana. I think Kingswell Theater is an interesting runner at a price. He ran well for a long way in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival after a big layoff. However, his last 3 runs have all been over that unique course so it remains to be seen how he fares back over regulation fences. One thing for sure is that he stays well having won the Devon National back in 2017. Trainer Michael Scudamore also has another interesting runner in Mysteree who seems to save his best for the Eider Chase (1st and 2nd on last two renewals). He may be better on softer ground and he is very hit and miss, he either runs or stormer or is one of the first to be ridden and throw the towel in. At 33/1 it is worth chancing he puts in one of his better efforts.
Takingrisks @25/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Brian Borhana @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Carole’s Destrier @25/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Kingswell Theater @50/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Mysteree @40/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve