I was chatting with a very succesful bettor the other day and we were
arguing about the merits of closing out on bets where your horse is
doing well in running.
EG you have bet a horse at a big price say 7/1 and it is looking like
a winner and now trading odds on in running, should you lock in a
profit or let it run and hope for the win.
The argument for each case is something along the lines of…
Close out – the horse might not win and its best to take a profit!
Let it Run – If you are selecting value bets that are profitable over
the long term then when you close out too early you sacrifice some of
Today I don’t want to get into a big discussion about which is the best
strategy but instead I thought it would be more useful to share the quick
and easy calculation for working out your stake to get an equal payout
whatever the result.
So as an example lets say you have backed your selection at 8.0 for a
£50 stake and its now trading at 2.3, you want to know how much to lay
at 2.3 to make the same profit whether your selections wins or loses.
To get the stake you just divide the total return on your back bet by
the lay price. So in our case that’s (8.0 x 50)/2.3 = 400/2.3 = 173.91.
So our lay stake is £173.91.
Enter the stake into Betfair and place your bet and you will have an
all green screen for £123.91 (which is £173.91 – £50)
If you prefer to see this demonstrated in a video you can find a video