Smash and Grab Update

Whilst we are on the subject of testing one of the members was kind enough to send in his news on the trial he was carrying out with the “Smash and Grab” automated betting tool that Marc Chawner designed for the May’10 news report. This is what Dave had to say….

“Ok, things about me. I’m lazy, I work and I’ve been looking for a way to make money out of gambling for a good while. Not an ideal combination, so it’s probably no surprise I haven’t found the golden goose yet. Is this spreadsheet it? If I’m honest, I don’t know. What I do know is that I’ve been running this for forty days now and I’m approximately 55 points up at the time of writing, so it’s currently successful. Hopefully, that will continue and it’ll prove a nice little earner, but who knows what the future will bring?

For those who don’t know, the idea is to take advantage of the punters who cause the price to drop of a runner that hits the front first, only for it to drift away and be overtaken by another nag. It places lays on each horse, which it cancels after the first one has been taken and then sits and hopes that horse is a false choice. Now I’m quite happy to run a system that makes 50 points a month, though with only a month’s worth of results, whether it continues is open to question (you may spot a cautious tone here – I’ve been caught out by too many systems to go overboard).

On a personal note, I’ve added a few things to the spreadsheet for my own benefit, the main one being a filter to stop betting after a certain number of points have been won, currently about five points. The reason for this is that I’ve been at the PC sometimes and seen a nice black balance end up as a red one, so, for my peace of mind, I’m happy to take a nice profit and retire to fight another day. I’ve not put a loss filter in yet, though I have considered it. I bet on all British and Irish races, so there are potentially quite a few bets every day. One thing I’m unsure about are races where the favourite goes off odds on. It’s currently laying those, but there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of difference in theory between an odds on horse before racing and one that dips to the price after the off, so I’m taking everything. As you can see, it’s a brute force approach.

The raw facts are that of 39 betting days (initially with no filters), there have been 15 losing days and 24 winning days with an overall profit of 55 points. I’ve kept the lay price at 2.02, which is as set in the spreadsheet, so maximum loss per race is, basically, one point and my stake is currently £2.00, though that should, hopefully, increase if the profits keep heading in. Cost is minimal. You need a £6 monthly subscription to the Gruss Betting software, the spreadsheet, which you download from the club members area and a Betfair account. As one final point of caution, everything’s gone well for me, though not everyone seems to have been as successful, but I can only tell it as I’ve seen it. Cross fingers that July is as profitable – I could do with a new computer!

Dave (Forum Member “injebreck”)

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