The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 19th Oct)
On Saturday Ascot will be hosting one of the biggest fixtures of the 2019 racing calendar, the QIPCO British Champions Day. The weather has affected plans as the track have already had to move the Fillies & Mares, Long Distance Cup and Champion Stakes to the inner hurdles track as the round course was waterlogged.
The final race of the card at Ascot is the Balmoral Handicap and although a relatively new event we have considered the runnings to date, and highlighted some of the key trends which will hopefully allow us to hone in on the potential winner.
The full trends analysis forms an integral part of the content of the brand new Insiders Club Members Report with Issue 206 also including a raft of micro methods to help us profit from the winter jumps campaign.
You can find out more about the Insiders Club including a very special offer here – https://www.bettinginsiders.com/9-99-trial/
Balmoral Handicap (Class 2, 1m Straight, 3yo+) – Ascot 4.40pm
Now established as Europe’s most valuable mile-long handicap with £250,000 guaranteed in prize money, the Balmoral Handicap will be contested by a maximum field of 20 runners.
Although a relatively new addition to the racing calendar it has proven to be a handicap of real quality, with no less than three subsequent Group 1 winners, Lord Glitters, Accidental Agent and Zabeel Prince, having emerged since competing in the race.
The previous winners’ rostrum reads as follows:-
2018: Sharja Bridge (Drawn 8/20, Soft) – (8/1) – trained by Roger Varian, ridden by James Doyle
2017: Lord Glitters (Drawn 3/20, Soft) – (3/1 Fav) – trained by David O’Meara, ridden by Daniel Tudhope
2016: Yuften (Drawn 1/19, Good) – (12/1) – trained by Roger Charlton, ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2015: Musaddas (Drawn 4/20, Gd-Soft) – (7/1) – trained by Saeed bin Suroor, ridden by Edward Greatrex (5)
2014: Bronze Angel (Drawn 10/27, Heavy) – (20/1) – trained by Marcus Tregoning, ridden by Louis Steward (3)
Although a relatively small sample from which to harvest key trends it would appear that a lower draw has previously been an advantage from a winning perspective, with the 2014 winner Bronze Angel being berthed the highest in stall 10.
On closer inspection of the stall stats we can draw a cautious conclusion that although the winners have been drawn from the lower half of the draw, there is potential to still place from the third quarter draw. In fact the results would indicate that simply backing those particular horses to place only at Betfair (SP) has proved to be fruitful to date.
Moving on let us consider the age profile of the past winners and placers and you could reach the conclusion that 3yo’s should be avoided with no wins to date however interestingly 4 of the 13 that have ran in the race previously have placed, and you would have made solid gains from the Betfair SP market, albeit a good chunk of that came from last year’s 4th placed horse, Another Batt.
As this is being compiled there are a fair few from that age group amongst the entries, so it will be interesting to see how many go to post come race day.
How did the winners/placers fare last time out?
If we consider those that last ran at Class 3 or lower it may knock out one or two runners, but possibly that type will not be rated high enough to make the cut.
All the previous winners were coming off a top 7 finish last time out, and a further 9 of the 71 in that category made the frame (19.72%).
6 of the runners that finished 8th or worse last time out achieved a placing, returning a tidy profit on the Betfair SP place market, although the aforementioned Another Batt was involved again!
All 5 winners had last raced on the track within 25 days, and that category also accounted for close to 25% of the placers.
One final snippet to add into the mix is although all five renewals have been won by different trainers, John Gosden and David O’Meara combined have achieved 1 winner and a further 6 placers from only 16 runners.
It may well also be a fruitful exercise to see if we can locate one or two that have decent chances of placing, and playing on the Betfair Place SP markets.
Hopefully the above will help narrow down the field to a select group that possess the “winners’ attributes” and help us end Champion’s Day with a profit.
Sat 19th Oct
A trio appear to come out best from a trends perspective and whilst Amedeo Modigliani may well be up to the task the price (7/2 Gen) doesn’t really appeal in a race of this nature especially given the underfoot conditions. The duo remaining are Commander Cole and Glen Shiel which at the prices offer EW opportunities. Alongside these we would also suggest a “Place Only” back on the Betfair SP market for 3yo’s Coolagh Forest and Dark Vision.
Commander Cole – 25/1 EW (1/5, 5pl Gen)
Glen Shiel – 20/1 EW (1/5, 5pl Gen)
Betfair SP – Place Back
Coolagh Forest and Dark Vision.
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve
Photo credit Herry Lawford Creative Commons 2.0