The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th Oct)
Last time around we focussed our efforts on bet365 Challenge Cup at Ascot and of the two that looked to have decent chances, via the key trends analysis, Escobar (adv EW 18/1) fared the best in grabbing third place and that helped us cover stakes and even return a small profit overall.
At Newmarket this coming Saturday the feature handicap race is the Cesarewitch Stakes which was the focus from a trends perspective for the brand new edition of the Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 205.
You can find out more about the Insiders Club including a very special offer here – https://www.bettinginsiders.com/trial
Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (Class 2, 2m2f, Heritage Handicap) – Newmarket 4.10pm
Following on a couple of weekends ago the Cesarewitch completes the line-up for the famous “Autumn Double” handicaps at HQ. With £350,000 guaranteed in prize money it is sure to be hotly contested and with approximately 30+ runners due to take part let’s hope the key trends of the past winners can help whittle them down to some likely contenders.
Last year the race provided Irish trainer Willie Mullins with a 1-2 although the yard actually ran 7, and he is likely to target the race again with some of his classy dual purposes horses. The marathon event regularly attracts runners from what are traditionally national hunt yards with Nicky Henderson, Alan King and Philip Hobbs fielding entries and both Hobbs (Big Easy 2014) and King (Grumeti 2015) have landed the spoils during the last decade.
For such a competitive race one snippet that seems unlikely is jockey Silvestre De Sousa has steered home no less than 3 of the last 10 winners and also finished 4th last time around so we need to play close attention once the bookings are confirmed for this year’s renewal.
From a betting perspective the winners prices during the last decade have ranged from 9/2 fav (Darley Sun 2009) all the way up to a duo of 66/1 shots, Aaim To Prosper 2012 and Scatter Dice 2013.
The percentage call is probably to select a mix of one from the fore of the market and one or two lively outsiders that have place claims at the very least.
Age wise the oldest recent winner was Aaim To Prosper who followed up his first win in the race in 2010 two years later when an 8yo.
Having said that there have only been 12 runners aged 9 or older but none troubled the judge in placing (standard market, 4pl).
From a weight perspective 8 of the last 10 winners carried less than 9 stone, but from a ratio of runners to placers those that carried 9 stone or above actually produced a better return, so that could be the area to look for a bigger priced one from an EW perspective.
Coming into the race all ten of the most recent winners had achieved a top 6th finish which could help eliminate a few of the entries this year and interestingly only 1 of the 64 that had won lto followed up that victory in the Cesarewitch.
Equally all ten had raced last time out in Class 3 level or above and all 28 that had run at a lower level on their last outing lost although a duo did manage to place.
Only 1 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for more than 46 days so that combined with the lto placing should help knock a few out of the reckoning.
Given the marathon distance of the Cesarewitch those with proven form over the trip or further is a big positive with as only the 2013 winner, Scatter Dice, arriving at the renewal having not won over at least 2 miles or further from 88 such runners.
If we summarise the key trends from the above we get the following key trends of a recent Cesarewitch winner:
- Pay attention to runners from Willie Mullins and Alan King
- Does Silvestre De Sousa have a ride?
- Consider both ends of the market (Main selection top 9 in the betting)
- A top 6 finish lto seems a strong positive
- Lto raced at Class 3 level or higher
- Raced in the last 46 days
- Focus on those with winning form at 2 miles of above
Hopefully the above will help narrow down the field to a select group that possess the “winners’ attributes”.
Read on to find our final selection(s) :-
Sat 12th Oct
The list of possibles is quite hefty but a couple that do tick many of the trends boxes are Land Of Oz and Themaxwecan. The former is a typical Prescott improver and stepped up even further to win the Cesarewitch Trial here last month. The latter is trained by my personal “marmite” yard Mark Johnston coupled with a question mark over the going based on runs to date. This time around have to take a leap of faith that MJ feels he can handle it?
Land Of Oz – 7/1 Gen
Themaxwecan – 25/1 Gen (6pl, 1/5), 8pl Sky, 7pl Coral
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve