The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 13th Oct’18)
The back-end of the Turf Flat season big races continue to come thick and fast and it’s the turn of the second leg of the “Autumn Double” on Saturday with the Dubai 500,000 Cesarewitch Stakes at Newmarket. With over 30 runners currently entered to run who better to turn to than our resident Big Race Guru Nick Hardman to help us narrow the field down to those with a serious chance of landing the big pot!
Dubai 500,000 Cesarewitch Stakes (Newmarket 15.40pm Sat 13th Oct)
Withhold landed a gamble in this last year and Sweet Selection was well fancied when winning in 2016 but these two aside it has been a race for the each way backer with plenty winning at big prices. Jumps trainers have done well in this and ones to note are Alan King, Nicky Henderson, AJ Martin and Phillip Hobbs. The likes of Mark Johnston, Hughie Morrison and Ian Williams are also adept at training staying horses. A middle to inside rail draw is advantageous but not too important as winners have exited from high stalls (24 or higher) 4 times in the last 10 years.
Perhaps the strongest statistic is a good effort last time out. Only 3 winners since 1997 took this having finished outside the top 6 on their last run. 15 of the winners since 1997 were aged 4yo to 8yo and that includes all the last 8. I’m going with that as it may knock a couple off as we try and reduce the field. Recent renewals have shifted towards the lower weighted runners. 7 of the last 8 winners were rated 84 to 89 and that is an angle we could use this time around and those winners all carried 8-11 or less.
The market often gives a good indication of a horse’s real chances and 16 of the last 21 winners came from the top 9 in the betting. That is pretty useful information with over 30 runners going to post but chance your arm with a couple at big prices too as we have had winners go in at 66/1 (twice), 50/1 (twice) and 25/1. Those off the track for 21 days or longer account for 19 of the last 21 winners. Also, those with more than 8 runs in the current season are 1-130 and that might also knock one or two off the list as well.
Those that have not raced over 2m 1f or further are 1-172, so any that have raced at a maximum distance of 2 miles and 2m ½f and under 2 miles should be avoided if the trends hold true. All bar 2 of the last 21 winners had winning form over 2 miles or further. Those that haven’t are 2-201. At least 3 previous handicap wins looks good (17/21) and go for one whose last race was on the flat (19/21). Those that last raced in a class 1 to class 3 race have been responsible for 18 of the last 21 winners. The class angle is also worth noting and a previous win at class 1 or 2 level is a strong trend.:
• Trained by a NH trainer, Mark Johnston, Ian Williams or Hughie Morrison
• Top 9 in the betting
• Drawn middle or rail side
• Aged 4yo to 8yo
• Top 6 finish LTO
• Rated 84 to 89
• Carrying 8-11 or less
• 8 runs or fewer in the current season
• Not raced in the last 21 days
• Raced over 2m 1f or further
• Won over 2 miles or further
• Last race was in class 1, 2 or 3
• Won at class 1 or 2 level
• 3 or more handicap wins
Sat 13th October
One from the Insiders Report and the best two trends qualifiers are Cliffs Of Dover and Uber Cool. From the trainer angle it would be no surprise to see Mark Johnston’s Making Miracles not only bounce back to form but improve for the extra distance. Ian Williams saddled the trial winner Stars Over The Sea but I think Speedo Boy looks overpriced and I think Law Girl could turn out to be the best of the Mullins brigade off a low weight.
Law Girl @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 8 places)
Speedo Boy @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Making Miracles @28/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 8 places)
Cliffs Of Dover @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 7 places)
Uber Cool @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 7 places)
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve