The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 15th June)
Last time around we noted how working with a balanced portfolio can ease out the ripples that inevitably come with punting on sports whether its horse racing or football. Within the Insiders Club there is a gem of a Golf Tipster in the form of Mark “Statman” Foley and during the current PGA season his insightful selections have been building a steady stream of solid profits.
Some of the highlights have been landing a punt with Phil Mickleson at 25/1 for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after “lefty” won the event for a fifth time. He also tipped up Dustin Johnson (adv 11/1) who strolled to a 5 stroke win with placers for Ian Poulter (adv EW 80/1, T3rd) and Garcia (adv EW 40/1, T6th) in the WGC Mexico. Mark also went with Francesco Molinari (adv 33/1) in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Brooks Koepka (adv 11/1) delivered for him in the US PGA and Kevin Na has also landed a 70/1 winner in the Colonial!
A few days ago Mark released his tips for the US Open and one of his big priced fancies is right in the mix of things after the first round!
For the coming weekend our resident Big Race Tips guru, Nick Hardman, has researched the key trends and stats for a tricky looking 3yo sprint at York on Saturday. All being well these will help us hone in on the likely winner and provide a handy top-up to our punting bank in preparation for the feast on offer down in Berkshire shortly after the weekend.
Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap (6f Class 2 handicap 3yo 0-105) – Sat 15th – York 3.35pm
Probably the best trends race this weekend comes in the shape of the 6f sprint handicap for 3yo’s at York. This has been won by some smart 3yo’s in the past, including Mr Lupton and Twilight Son, so anything winning it this year could be one to follow in the future. We get up to 20 runners lining up so no surprise to see plenty of big priced winners over the years.
8 of the last 11 winners were drawn low (1-8) and although not a massive bias, it is worth noting as is 17 of the last 21 winners had raced in the last 29 days.
We have a nice official ratings band for the majority of the recent winners and that is 86 to 95. Since 2004, no fewer than 12 winners came from this ratings band and that may eliminate a few from the field.
18 of the last 21 winners posted a top 4 effort on their previous start and again that may just see us lose a few from the field and possible your likeliest winner will come from the top 6 in the betting (14/22) but with plenty of big priced winners in the past also, take a flyer on something at a price if it has a good trends profile.
Another strong statistic is 1 to 3 runs in the current season and this accounts for 18 of the last 22 winners. Avoid any runner without a win at 6f or further as these runners are 3-118.
Avoid anything dropping down from Class 1 last time out (1-67) and anything that ran in a non-handicap race (1-113) and stick with those that last raced in a Class 2 or 3 handicaps. I would also be inclined to stick with those that had 2 to 5 previous handicap starts as not only are these runners responsible for 15 of the last 22 winners, they are also responsible for all of the profit.
All that leaves us with a fairly solid profile:
- Drawn in a single figure stall
- Raced in the last 29 days
- Top 6 finish LTO
- Top 6 in the betting
- 1 to 3 runs in the current season
- Rated 86 to 95
- Won over 6f or further
- Last ran in a Class 2 or 3 handicap
- 2 to 5 previous handicap starts
Nick will be using the above in his evaluation of the race and to find out which of the runners he settles on as his final selection(s) read on:-
Sat 15th June
One from the Insiders Report and the trends qualifier is Moraawed who would hold a decent chance if the first time headgear ekes out some improvement. A couple just fall down on a couple of stats including Shallow Hal and Firelight. The latter has decent form on bad ground and contested some useful races last season. The former needs to show more but won on heavy as a 2yo so any further rain would aid his cause.
Moraawed @13/2 Gen
Shallow Hal @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Firelight @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve