The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 30th March)
With the “proper” National Hunt season beginning to wind down notwithstanding the small matter of the Grand National meeting at Aintree, our attention naturally turns to the new Flat Turf campaign which gets underway on Saturday. Doncaster play host to the traditional curtain raiser and on the 7 race card there are a duo of tough looking handicaps one of which is the Lincoln Handicap.
For the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 177, our resident Big Race guru Nick Hardman delved into the historical results of the Lincoln Handicap and the key trends he found offer the opportunity to narrow down the 20+ runners to a select few that have the “winning profile”.
A summary of his findings are as follows:-
The Unibet Lincoln Handicap (1 mile; Heritage handicap) Doncaster 3.35pm
The Doncaster Lincoln meeting heralds the start of the flat season and it is a cracking trends race to boot. The Big Race Tips for the Insiders Club have landed the winner a couple of times including Bravery at a big price so hopefully we can find the winner again this year.
No obvious pattern in terms of the draw with winners drawn right across the track in years gone by. The age stat is strong with 21 of the 22 winners since 1997 aged 4yo to 6yo. True, they make up the majority of the runners but those aged 7yo and older are 1-85. The classier type tends to win this and 8 of the last 9 winners carried at least 9st 1lb on their back to victory and 14 of the last 16 winners were rated 95+.
William Haggas has won this twice in recent times as has Richard Fahey (Third Time Lucky/Great Prospector) whose runners are always worth noting at this meeting anyhow as he invariably has them firing on all cylinders right from the opening day.
20 of the 22 winners since 1997 came from the top 12 in the betting and seeing as around 20 to 22 runners’ line up that will help in narrowing the field. 18 of the 22 winners had won over a mile or further and all had at least raced over this distance.
17 of the last 22 winners had won a handicap race previously and 16 had won at least 3 of their career starts. This is not the race where you want to be breaking your maiden tag. In fact, between 3 and 5 career wins looks spot on an account for no fewer than 15 winners since 1997.
Quite a lot to digest but the profile of the previous Lincoln winners is fairly tight and is shown below:
- Aged 4yo to 6yo
- Carrying 9st 1lb or more
- Rated 95+
- Trained by Richard Fahey or William Haggas
- Top 12 in the betting
- Won over a mile or further previously
- 3 to 5 career wins
- Previous success in a handicap race
- Avoid maidens
Sat 30th March
The trends have been applied and they narrow it down to 6 runners. Auxerre, Chiefofchiefs, Saltonstall, Ripp Orff, Kynren and Humbert. Auxerre is the likeliest winner but at 7/2 in a race of this nature is reluctantly passed over. Chiefofchiefs looks a shade high in the weights. Kynren and Ripp Orff are solid yardsticks in big field handicaps and Saltonstall is a market mover. Humbert is also interesting for David O’Meara given his record with cast offs from other yards.
Ripp Orff @12/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, PP/Sky)
Humbert @12/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, PP) .
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve