The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 13th May’17)
Given our Big Race Guru’s longstanding and profitable track record it was a little surprising that we drew a blank for the second weekend on the bounce as Nick’s Thirsk Hunt Cup picks could only manage a DH 3rd place between them.
But he came good again at Chester and we shared a couple of winners there for free in our emails.
Nick’s profit for 2017 as a whole is showing gains of +132 points profit for his loyal band of followers. This is on the back of the last two years profits of in excess of 1200 points (400pts in 2015 & 850pts in 2016) combined with a cracking +28% ROI.
If your current punting activities are not delivering the level of profit you would hope for then you may enjoy watching this interesting video which explains Nick’s method.
An important part of the comprehensive package enjoyed by members of the Betting Insiders Club is the monthly 52 page report which contains articles written by a team of industry renowned authors such as Alan Dudman (Betting.betfair.com), Josh Wright (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk), and Andrew David (www.bettingdoctor.co.uk) alongside which we feature Nick Hardman’s Big Race Trends. In the hot off the press latest report (Issue 145) Nick covers a number of the top class races due to be run in the coming weeks one of which is Saturday’s Victoria Cup at Ascot, here is a summary of his key findings:-
Victoria Cup (Heritage handicap; 7f, Ascot Sat 13th 4.00pm)
Another cavalry charge, this time over 7f and a good opportunity to land a big priced winner. Flash Fire did the business last year at an SP of 20/1 to add to that list that has seen 33/1, 25/1 (three times) and 16/1 (twice) winners since 2000. Interestingly, the last eighteen renewals have seen eighteen different trainers saddle the winner so we can draw a line through any trainer trends straight away.
Fourteen of the last 18 winners posted a top 5 finish on their most recent start so look for a decent effort last time out. Four year old and 5yo runners have supplied 14 of those winners so I would be inclined to stick with that age group again this time around. A race in the last 60 days is another positive stat and fits the bill for 15 of the 18. Seven furlongs is a bit of a specialist trip, requiring a blend of speed and stamina so no surprise to see that 14 of the last 18 winners have already been successful over the trip. No more than 2 runs in the current season is a strong statistic and only one of our winners had run more than twice in the current campaign.
The weights are a bit of a mixed bag. Flash Fire carried 9st 6lbs last year and Gabriels Lad carried 9st 8lbs in 2004, both of those being the most weight carried by any winner since Mine had 9st 7lbs on his back in 2004. The last four were all burdened with at least 8st 9lbs and purely from a trends perspective, 8st 9lbs or more could be the way to go and accounts for 8 of the last 11 winners.
As far as official ratings go we also see a bit of a mixed bag. Flash Fire (104) and Gabriels Lad (102) were the highest rated winners in recent times. I would certainly be looking for something rated in the 90’s at the very least.
In fact 11 of the last 13 winners were rated 92+ and that might well be the way to go.
Putting all that together gives us the following profile for the Victoria Cup:
• Top 5 finish LTO
• Previous winning form over 7f
• No more than two runs in the current season
• Aged 4yo or 5yo
• Rated 92+
• Carrying 8st 9lbs or more
Nick will be using the above key trends to help him narrow the field to a select number of main contenders. From these he will make his final selections which you can grab by clicking here to read on:-
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 13th May’17
A decent trends race and one who ticks plenty of boxes in that respect is Above The Rest. Hors De Combat has been knocking on the door of late and has plenty of decent course form. Of those near the head of the market, Remarkable has solid claims on the back of his second behind Yuften here last season.
Hors De Combat @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Remarkable @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Above The Rest @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve