The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 20th April)
Last time around we featured Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s top trends for the Scottish Grand National and boy were they on the money. After reviewing the final declarations here Nick settled on a trio of entries that met the criteria of the “winner’s profile”. These were Takingrisks, Carole’s Destrier and Brian Boranha and the first named emerged as the winner of the marathon at a very tasty 25/1!
Of course they can’t all win but at those kinds of prices they don’t need to!
For the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 180, Nick turns his attention to the Irish equivalent which is due to be run at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday. Below you can read his key trends and come race day we will be sharing Nick’s final selections.
BoyleSports Irish Grand National Handicap Chase – (3m 5f) Fairyhouse 5.00pm Monday 22nd April.
The final National of the season comes from Fairyhouse that sees another bumper field of around 28 runners.
The first stat to bring your attention is that no horse older than 10yo has won this since 1997. All the winners in that time were aged 7yo to 10yo.
A break of 22 days or longer looks important (15 of the last 16 winners). The other thing to note is to go light.
Three previous winners have carried either 11-04 or 11-03 to victory but the other 19 winners since 1997 carried under 11st. In fact, most winners carried 10-00 to 10-08 (14/22) if you want to narrow it down further.
From an official ratings standpoint, again go low down the handicap as all bar 2 winners since 1997 were rated 139 or lower.
All bar 2 winners in that time had raced between 3 and 8 times in the current season.
As expected, all bar 1 previous winner had raced over 3 miles or further previously and all bar 3 had won over 3 miles or further.
18 of the last 22 winners had run at least 6 times over fences and between 1 and 4 previous chase wins accounts for all bar 1 winner since 1997.
15 of the last 22 winners last ran at either the Cheltenham Festival, Navan or Leopardstown.
Given that trainers like to plot a familiar course that could be worth noting.
- Off the track for 22 days or longer
- Carrying under 11st (ideally 10-00 to 10-08)
- Aged 7yo to 10yo
- Top 6 finish last time out (ideally top 3)
- Rated no higher than 139
- Between 3 and 8 runs in the current season
- Won over 3 miles or further
- At least 6 career runs over fences
- Won between 1 and 4 times over fences previously
- Last ran at Cheltenham, Navan or Leopardstown
Read on and find out which of the Irish National runners tick the key trends boxes to feature in Nick’s final selections:-
Mon 22nd April
A big race for the trends and the one horse that ticks all the boxes is Kimberlite Candy. Ran well in the Eider to finish 4th so he won’t be short on stamina and has form on GS but genuinely good ground is a bit of an unknown. Whisperinthebreeze is next best ahead on Measureofmydreams and Isleofhopendreams. The latter may be best on softer ground but was an excellent second in this last year and if he does handle conditions could mount a bold bid. Auvergnat won the PaddyPower before disappointing in the Cross Country Chase but could bounce back over regulation fences.
Kimberlite Candy @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Measureofmydreams @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Isleofhopendreams @28/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, BV)
Whisperinthebreeze @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Auvergnat @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019 Darren & Steve