The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 31st August)
The York Ebor Festival has come and gone for another year and Raymond Tusk fared best of the trio of big priced selections that our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, settled on. The Richard Hannon trained 4yo was arguably a bit unlucky not to have finished closer as having travelled well under a typically patient Spencer ride, he not unsurprisingly met some trouble over 2f out and had to pick his way through after and stayed on well to be nearest at the finish. At least at the readily available 25/1 in the morning markets, the place returns covered the stakes overall so we live to fight another day!
For the coming weekend Nick covered a new race for us from a stats perspective and the William Hill Silver Cup up at Beverley looks a potentially trappy one so hopefully the past trends will lead us to nailing the winner.
You can find out more about Nick’s specialist approach here https://bigracetips.co.uk/
William Hill Silver Cup (3yo, 1m 2f handicap) – Beverley 2.05pm
A new race for us this year and slightly disappointingly only 6 have been declared to run whereas typically there are usually a few more runners. We start with our top trainers and Richard Fahey (Arctic Fox) has won 2 of the last 3 renewals. Karl Burke won back to back renewals in 2013 and 2014 and Mark Johnston (Dark Vision/Victory Command) won this race 3 times between 2008 and 2012. The list is completed by Mick Channon who won this race in 2004 and 2010 and Brian Ellison who won the race in 2005 and 2007. These five trainers have been responsible for 11 of the 16 winners since the race was first run in 2003.
There have been 16 renewals of this race and in that time all the winners had raced in the previous 43 days. All bar two winners came from the top 5 in the betting but one renewal only had 5 runners and most recent renewals have seen around 8 to post.
Favourites do have a good record though having won 5 times since 2003 (5-19 when joint and co-favourites are included).
14 of the 16 winners had raced between 4 and 8 times that season whilst 13 of the 16 had experience of racing over 1m 2f previously and all bar 2 winners had winning form over a mile or further.
There are no real trends for weight carried by the previous winners. The highest rated winner won off 102 and the lowest rated winner won off 79. The winning-most ratings band is 85 to 96 and this band has been responsible for 12 of the 16 winners since the race’s inception. 15/16 had won no more than 2 previous handicap races and 13/16 had won a race that season.
15/16 last ran in a handicap race and 14/16 had between 1 and 3 career wins. This may not seem a lot but this race is confined to 3yo’s. 14/16 had run at class 2 level before and 12 of the 16 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last 3 runs. Putting that altogether leaves us with a fairly solid looking profile for the Beverley Silver Cup:
- Trained by Richard Fahey, Karl Burke, Mick Channon, Brian Ellison, Mark Johnston
- Raced in the last 43 days
- Top 5 in the betting
- Raced over 1m 2f or further
- Won over 1m or further
- 4 to 8 runs in the current season
- Rated 85 to 96
- Won a race in the current season
- No more than 2 previous handicap and 3 previous career wins
- Run at class 2 level before
- Last ran in a handicap
Nick will be using the above to help in his evaluation of the runners and to find out which of the entries he settles on as his final selection read on:-
Sat 31st August
One from the Weekly Report and the trends qualifiers are:
Arctic Fox @14/1
Victory Command @15/2
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve