Here is the additional analysis from the Welsh Grand National that further explains how Nick determined the trends for that race.
The Welsh Grand National (Grade 3 Handicap; 3m 5 1⁄2f); December 27th
All of the “National” races are great for trends analysis and this one is no exception. One of the first things to note is that this marathon trip is normally run on testing ground and horses carrying a low weight do particularly well. No horse has carried more than 11st 6lbs to victory since 1997. In fact, 13 of the last 17 winners carried 10-09 or less. On the ten occasions since 1997 when the official going has been heavy, 4 of the winners have carried 10st 0lbs, a further 3 have carried 10st 1lb and the other winners carried 10-4, 10-5, 10-8 and 10-13.
The trainers to look out for are Richard Lee, Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls who have all trained the winner twice since 2002. The last 5 winners have all been 8yo and horses aged 7yo to 9yo have won 15 of the last 17 renewals. On closer inspection, no 9yo has won since 2003 and we can strike a line through any runner aged 10 or older. With the last 7 winners all aged 7yo or 8yo this appears to be the age group to concentrate on.
All of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 6 LTO and 15 of the last 17 had finished in the top four LTO. A top 4 finish LTO looks a strong statistic. All of the previous winners had last raced 16 – 60 days previously and one or two previous runs in the season look to be a pre-requisite. This race is over the marathon trip of 3m 5 1⁄2 furlongs. I would want to side with a horse that has previously raced over this distance or further as they account for 13 of the last 17 winners. 10 of the last 17 winners had also raced over at least 4 miles.
Putting that altogether gives us our Welsh Grand National profile:
= Aged 7yo or 8yo
= A top 4 finish LTO
= Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
= Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
= Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
= Had previously raced over 3m 5 1⁄2 furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)
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